Time to revisit Crypto
Sleepy summer price action might precede a chaotic fall season
Levolytics is back after taking a summer recess. The reason for this break was simple:
I was in the middle of a cross country move
Crypto markets were in hibernation mode
The future direction of the newsletter was under review
With this in mind, the plan moving forward is simple:
Continue to post free content for subscribers that is (1) useful to readers and (2) that is affordable for me to provide.
The content structure moving forward is also simple:
Written pieces will be concise
Videos will provide more detail / personality
If readers have any questions shoot me a message on Twitter @permabullnino, leave a comment on this post, or drop a question in the Levolytics chat channel on Substack.
TLDR: Market Wake-Up Call
BTC’s been in bear/consolidation mode since May, with the last real “blue candle” (bullish print) back in October 2025 — a long stretch of pain.
Broadening cohort of crypto assets grinding sideways over 90 days = summer disinterest/capital rotation out.
30-day realized vol keeps compressing as traders check out — but that’s exactly the setup for a violent move once people return from summer break and start expressing conviction again.
Market is still digesting the June sell-off; sideways price action + increasing leverage = fuel for a chaotic breakout (either direction).
Portfolio stance: 50% long feels reasonable given the “down only forever” fatigue — compressed vol is either a chance to make back losses fast, or a last window to deploy cash at deep value.
VIDEO MARKET ANALYSIS TO BE PUBLISHED TUESDAY. MY MIC IS STILL BURIED IN STORAGE.
MARKET ANALYSIS
BTC momentum has been bearish since May 2026, giving investors and traders the summer off.
Previous blue candle prints were October 2025 - BTC has been in pain mode for a long time.
An increasing cohort of crypto assets are trading sideways over a 90-Day span.
Sideways in crypto = disinterest as people check out for the summer or out of crypto markets entirely.
30-Day volatility for crypto assets continues to bleed out.
Everybody is returning to their desk after summer vacations, good time for people to start expressing their opinions to wake the market back up.
As a reminder, the market is recovering from a large June sell off.
Consolidation after sell off = market participants regaining their footing.
Prices are moving sideways, and traders are levering up = recipe for incoming chaos.
PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS
Crypto market has been down only forever, being 50% long seems very reasonable at this point.
Volatility compressing creates an opportunity to either make a large chunk back quick, or one last opportunity to deploy cash into very deep value lows.
The Levolytics book is still outperforming BTC / Altcoins.
Not feeling any need to bet heavy, and happy to maintain current portfolio construction.
SIGN OFF
That’s all folks, it’s good to be back. Volatility is on the horizon, until then it makes sense to expect more mean reverting price action.
Watch 90-Day % returns for BTC. More to come in the video release Tuesday.