Time to pay attention to crypto
Available to ALL subscribers | Crypto markets are coiling for a major move after an extended period of sideways action.
The grind higher continues for BTC and crypto markets.
Patience of market participants is at the verge of boiling over.
People are (fairly) asking “why trade trade crypto at this point?”
Equities are in full rebound mode, and the crypto folks are feeling sidelined sitting in BTC + altcoins.
This sentiment is becoming more and more evident in the data.
As always with Crypto - if you aren’t paying attention the opportunity passes you by.
Let’s continue to talk about why we believe we are the doorstep of opportunity - and why it’s a dangerous time to take your eyes off of Crypto.
TLDR
Crypto markets are coiling for a major move after an extended period of sideways action.
~85% of perpetual pairs have gone sideways over the past 90 days → compression = setup for expansion
Funding data shows a bullish divergence:
Altcoins: negative funding becoming less persistent (risk appetite improving)
BTC: funding still very low vs market (historically near extreme → potential reversal fuel)
BTC funding rank is near all-time lows, suggesting it’s heavily under-positioned vs the rest of crypto
High open interest relative to volume → traders are crowded and stuck, increasing squeeze potential
Coinbase premium remains positive → no real panic selling, underlying demand still present
Positioning / Outlook:
Market likely near an inflection point
Expect BTC to lead first, followed by altcoins if momentum confirms
Key trigger: BTC 90-day returns flipping positive → signal to increase exposure
Bottom line:
This is a classic “calm before the move” setup — if you’re not paying attention, you risk missing a high-probability opportunity.
VIDEO VERSION OF ARTICLE (37 MINS)
MARKET ANALYSIS
Markets in many ways behave like living creatures - they need to rest before doing anything explosive.
“Up only” (or down only) occur after the market has done “nothing only” for an extended period of time.
The market is approaching full charge, and ready for a directional move.
85% of perpetual swap pairs on Bybit have gone sideways over the past 90 days.
A lot of sideways for a lot of assets = opportunity.
Altcoins thrive in a risk on environment, and risk on environments are often characterized by increases in positive funding rates for perpetual swaps.
On the other hand, BTC tends to reverse bearish course when it’s “over shorted” i.e. when funding rates are negative for a relatively long time.
We currently have both of these conditions starting to show up in the data - with negative funding become:
(1) Less persistent for Altcoins &
(2) More persistent for BTC
Another way you can measure the Altcoins vs BTC funding rate “bullish divergence” is by just checking BTCUSDT’s funding rate rank vs all the other perpetual swaps on Bybit:
Low values = BTCUSDT funding rate low vs rest of the market
High values = BTCUSDT funding rate high vs rest of the market
The current value for this metric is the second lowest it’s been EVER - indicating that BTC funding rate is at a historically low level.
Meanwhile, we continue to see that a relatively high % of perpetual swaps volume is sitting in open interest.
Traders are holding their positions, which creates opportunity for large amounts of forced buying / selling if volatility ramps up in the coming weeks.
We’ve said this before, but we think it’s important to repeat it as often as possible:
If traders are bearish, there should be an urgency to sell their altcoins.
As can be seen in the Coinbase Premium in the chart above, that is not the case. There’s been a consistent premium since early April, after steep discounts persisted though the November 2025 and February 2026 drawdowns.
PORTFOLIO UPDATES
Not much has changed in the Levolytics portfolio - still around ~70% cash.
A little bit of Altcoin exposure was swapped into BTC because it’s looking like BTC will lead if the market does actually bottom in the coming weeks.
BTC performance has caught up to the Levolytics performance.
Levolytics maintains a lead over Altcoin performance since inception.
If we get BTC pump first —> Altcoins there might be an opportunity to extended this gap more.
CLOSING STATEMENT
On top of everything that’s going on under the hood, the obvious set up that we’ve been waiting months for is almost here: 90D % returns for BTC flipping positive.
This metric going back into the black will be an easy signal for ramping up BTC + any outperforming Altcoin exposure.
There are no “perfect” set ups in markets, but there are definitely periods where things seem much easier and obvious.
We continue to believe that this set up is on the horizon.
Almost there.
DISCLAIMER
The performance results presented herein reflect proprietary trading activity conducted with internal capital only. No external capital is managed, accepted, or solicited. These results are unaudited and are provided solely for informational and research purposes.
Performance data represents the return on internal capital based on realized and unrealized gains and losses, net of trading fees and transaction costs, but before any taxes or potential operating expenses. The methodology used to calculate performance has been applied consistently; however, results have not been verified by any independent party.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. The information contained herein does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, investment fund interest, or other financial instrument.
Any opinions, estimates, or forward-looking statements are subject to change without notice and are provided for illustrative or educational purposes only.