Crypto Market Update on BTC Upside
Available to All Subscribers | CMHC Edition #21
Introduction
Welcome to this edition of Crypto Markets Health Check! Our weekly to-the-point metrics check.
If you enjoy the research, please subscribe and share our work with friends and colleagues.
All lives charts available on Dude Terminal.
Metrics Check
Metric: Average open interest per perp pair / BTCUSDT open interest 30-Day z-score
Bottomed at -2.82 on March 4th
Signals that BTC perps open interest is high vs the average altcoin
This dynamic is more prevalent during large deleveraging events, so this is a unique data print
Metric: % of perpetual swap pairs above 30-Day moving average
Current value = 35%
Market showing signs of life for a potential relief rally
Historical peaks occur above 80%
Metric: % of perpetual swap pairs w/ relative high volume (Relative to past 12 hours)
Peaked at 63% on March 5 as BTCUSD dropped below $71,000
This metric can be useful for identifying lower timeframe dumps to buy in an uptrend
This version of Crypto Markets Health Check is focused on analyzing lower timeframes to better understand different components of the current BTC breakout. Our takeaway is as follows:
BTC perps open interest growth is outpacing altcoin open interest on this breakout move, which is a possible signal that BTC is properly leading this rally
We admit that this is also a unique development so our confidence level on this is mixed - at a minimum it means that traders aren’t “apeing” into altcoins on this move and that the aggressive movement is focused on BTC for the moment
The uptick in % of assets moving above their respective 30-day moving averages shows that there’s some market-wide participation in the rally
March 5th provided a lower timeframe pullback, and a possible intra-rally bottom print if this BTC has some legs to it
We’ve been patiently waiting for the market to bring us the early March rally we’ve spoken about for multiple weeks now. Thus far the data has signaled that BTC is leading, and that there’s no obvious sign of it reaching a level of overextension yet.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. The information contained herein does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, investment fund interest, or other financial instrument.
Any opinions, estimates, or forward-looking statements are subject to change without notice and are provided for illustrative or educational purposes only.